Forecast Clash is a severe weather targeting platform designed for use by anyone with an understanding of weather models. The goal is to set a target for severe weather, including wind, hail, and tornadoes for any point in the U.S., out to Day 3. Submitted targets are combined to produce a dynamic threat and intensity output that is completely human-driven.
Browse your favorite weather models, then pick a target based on your experience and understanding of the weather scenario. Set a radius around the target to indicate your confidence level in the pick. You may change your target at any time prior to 7pm CST on the day of the event.
Targets picked further from the event date earn more points. Forecast confidence points can also be earned by setting a radius around your target. Finally, points are awarded based on how far your pick is, geographically, from a reported severe weather event. Points are tracked on global and filtered leaderboards and are tallied everyday at 7pm CST.
Scoring is performed daily based on official Storm Prediction Center reports. Only targets picked that have a weather type that meets or exceeds severe criteria will be awarded points. Severe criteria are met when a thunderstorm report includes hail that is at least 1 inch in diameter or larger, and/or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado.
Teaming allows targeting and scoring to occur within smaller subsets of users. Teams are perfect for contests, organizational or classroom applications.
Forecast Clash is a privately funded project created to better understand human weather modeling. If you have questions, comments or ideas, we’re all ears.